Tuesday, March 13, 2007

W1: Monday

I opened around 7:00 Monday morning going long on USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY. I went short on AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. From there, I followed the rules of my system, repeating profitable positions and reversing the losses. Here's the results, in brief:

AUD/USD: -+
EUR/USD: --
GBP/USD: -+-

USD/CAD: +-
USD/CHF: -
USD/JPY: ++-

Result for Monday: Out of 13 trades, I took 5 profits and 8 losses, realizing a net loss of $217.37 USD. It's not looking good for the Home Team, folks...

I learned that a retail sales report is due to hit the news on Tuesday. I considered invoking Rule 3, but I have a couple of problems there. First, all of my pairs include the USD, and this news is supposed to affect the USD. That would mean closing out all my pairs and not trading tomorrow. I normally wouldn't have a problem with that. It's only for a day, right?

Wrong! I also learned there is a report due every day this week from Tuesday on to Friday. Invoking Rule 3 would mean not trading any more this week. Because I am only trading this ratio for a single week, that would basically render this week's experiment moot. Since I'm not sure how these reports will affect the market, I'm going to keep trading and gain the experience. I'll just have to hope that my trading rules will take me out of the wild pairs before I lose my hypothetical shirt. That is what they're for, after all.

In the future, I think it might be wise to include a couple of pairs that don't trade the USD directly. That way, if the Greenback does wig out on weeks like this, I'll have something else to trade. Then again, I suspect that when the Dollar goes wonky, most other currencies feel it too.

Not familiar with the QRF rules? Check out http://darkforex.blogspot.com/2007/03/quasi-random-forex-system.html

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