Week 1: Summary

Here's a quick look at this week's trading activity:

AUD/USD: -+--+ (- 60 pips)
EUR/USD: --+--- (-135 pips)
GBP/USD: -+-+++-+--+ (- 60 pips)

USD/CAD: +--- (- 75 pips)
USD/CHF: -+++-++- (- 15 pips)
USD/JPY: ++-++++-+-++++++- (+ 75 pips)

That's -270 pips from market action alone. Trading costs money, however, and the broker wants his share too. There were 51 trades this week. I estimate an additional cost of 119.9 pips in spreads for a total of -389.9 pips. The spread varies widely from trade to trade, so I will make do with estimating it; I'm more concerned with actual dollar amounts than pips anyway.

Speaking of dollar amounts, I started with $5,000 in my account. I now have $4,577.75, for a drawdown of 8.4%.

The QRF system went for a wild ride this week, and it was all downhill! So why am I grinning like a fool? Several reasons:

1. Predictability. The market 'responded' more or less exactly as I expected. I predicted a loss for this week, and that is what I got. This suggests that my instincts are telling me the right things, and that I know more or less what I am getting into. From what I understand, predictability is a key ingredient in a successful trading strategy. I feel that I am on the right track here.

2. Experience. I risked nothing but my time, and learned quite a bit from trading this week.

3. Confidence. I waded into the forex under dubious conditions, traded more or less randomly, and still walked away with 91.6% of my capital intact. Even if I were trading with real money, I'd still live to trade another week. If that represents the worst that the markets can throw at me, I can trade confidently and with little to fear in the way of loss.

4. Expectation. This week's result should be a baseline to which I can compare future results. Since I traded the worst ratio first, I expect there isn't much of anywhere to go from here but up. Mark me well; in weeks to come and at higher ratios, this system WILL trade profitably.

There's definitely room for improvement, though. I made some mistakes this week, and need to focus on following my rules a little better. I must also consider having a sideboard of pairs not involving the USD that I can use when news hits and I'm not sure how I expect the Dollar to behave. I think I'm going to add a link or two to help me track the news a little better as well.

In the meantime, though... there's a weekend getting under way! Happy pippin'!